EROEI.COM

The Energy Department and other federal agencies need to develop a strategy to mitigate the effects of a peak in oil production, which most studies show will occur between now and 2040, the Government Accountability Office  <http://www.gao.gov/> said today, in a study requested by members of the House Committee on Science and Technology.

Though there is a great deal of uncertainty about the timing of peak oil, in part because OPEC members donít open up their crude reserves for independent audit, the U.S. would be one of the hardest hit by a such a peak due to the nationís dependency on oil for transportation, according to the GAO.

Compared with past price spikes, ìthe consequences of a peak and permanent decline in oil production could be even more prolonged and severe than those of past oil supply shocks,î the GAO said. One reason is that the decline ìwould be neither temporary nor reversible,î said the report, which cited a ìworldwide recessionî as a possible outcome.

Though some leading analysts today view peak oil as a major worry, some leading energy companies such as Exxon Mobil and consultants such as Cambridge Energy Research Associates, see petroleum supplies as being more abundant.

Although the timing is uncertain, the GAO firmly endorses the concept that oil production will peak at some point. ìThe total amount of oil underground is finite, and, therefore, production will one day reach a peak and then begin to decline,î the GAO said.

In urging that Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman take the lead in establishing a response to peak oil, the GAO said any strategy should include efforts to pinpoint with greater accuracy the timing of a peak in oil production and to provide timely advice to Congress about cost-effective measures to mitigate the economic consequences

Efforts to minimize the impact on the U.S., such as increasing alternative fuels like ethanol require costly investments in infrastructure and new technologies. Even optimistic scenarios project that alternative technologies will displace just 4% of projected U.S. consumption by 2015, the GAO said.